Philip E. Tetlock
University of Pennsylvania
H-index: 108
North America-United States
Top articles of Philip E. Tetlock
Title | Journal | Author(s) | Publication Date |
|---|---|---|---|
AI-Augmented Predictions: LLM Assistants Improve Human Forecasting Accuracy | arXiv preprint arXiv:2402.07862 | Philipp Schoenegger Peter S Park Ezra Karger Philip E Tetlock | 2024/2/12 |
Assume a can opener | Behavioral and Brain Sciences | Cory J Clark Calvin Isch Paul Connor Philip E Tetlock | 2024/1 |
Long‐range subjective‐probability forecasts of slow‐motion variables in world politics: Exploring limits on expert judgment | Futures & Foresight Science | Philip E Tetlock Christopher Karvetski Ville A Satopää Kevin Chen | 2023/3/3 |
Wisdom of the Silicon Crowd: LLM Ensemble Prediction Capabilities Match Human Crowd Accuracy | arXiv preprint arXiv:2402.19379 | Philipp Schoenegger Indre Tuminauskaite Peter S Park Philip E Tetlock | 2024/2/29 |
Human and Algorithmic Predictions in Geopolitical Forecasting: Quantifying Uncertainty in Hard-to-Quantify Domains | Perspectives on Psychological Science | Barbara A Mellers John P McCoy Louise Lu Philip E Tetlock | 2023/8/29 |
Full accuracy scoring accelerates the discovery of skilled forecasters | Available at SSRN 4357367 | Pavel D Atanasov Ezra Karger Philip Tetlock | 2023/2/13 |
Are progressives in denial about progress? Yes, but so is almost everyone else | Clinical Psychological Science | Gregory Mitchell Philip E Tetlock | 2023/7 |
Are markets more accurate than polls? The surprising informational value of “just asking”–CORRIGENDUM | Judgment and Decision Making | Jason Dana Pavel Atanasov Philip Tetlock Barbara Mellers | 2023/1 |
Decomposing the effects of crowd-wisdom aggregators: The bias–information–noise (BIN) model | International Journal of Forecasting | Ville A Satopää Marat Salikhov Philip E Tetlock Barbara Mellers | 2022/2/2 |
Prosocial motives underlie scientific censorship by scientists: A perspective and research agenda | Cory J Clark Lee Jussim Komi Frey Sean T Stevens Musa Al-Gharbi | 2023/11/28 | |
Harm hypervigilance in public reactions to scientific evidence | Psychological Science | Cory J Clark Maja Graso Ilana Redstone Philip E Tetlock | 2023/7 |
Validating a forced-choice method for eliciting quality-of-reasoning judgments | Behavior Research Methods | Alexandru Marcoci Margaret E Webb Luke Rowe Ashley Barnett Tamar Primoratz | 2023/10/13 |
AI and the transformation of social science research | Science | Igor Grossmann Matthew Feinberg Dawn C Parker Nicholas A Christakis Philip E Tetlock | 2023/6/16 |
Adversarial collaboration: The next science reform | Cory J Clark Philip E Tetlock | 2023/9/14 | |
False dichotomy alert: Improving subjective-probability estimates vs. raising awareness of systemic risk | International Journal of Forecasting | Philip E Tetlock Yunzi Lu Barbara A Mellers | 2023/4/1 |
The internal validity obsession. | Behavioral & Brain Sciences | Gregory Mitchell Philip E Tetlock | 2022/1/1 |
Shoring up the shaky psychological foundations of a micro-economic model of ideology: Adversarial collaboration solutions | Psychological Inquiry | Thomas H Costello Cory J Clark Phil Tetlock | 2021/6/24 |
What do forecasting rationales reveal about thinking patterns of top geopolitical forecasters? | International Journal of Forecasting | Christopher W Karvetski Carolyn Meinel Daniel T Maxwell Yunzi Lu Barbara A Mellers | 2022/4/1 |
The road less traveled: Understanding adversaries is hard but smarter than ignoring them. | Cory J Clark Thomas Costello Gregory Mitchell Philip E Tetlock | 2022/3 | |
Keep your enemies close: Adversarial collaborations will improve behavioral science. | Journal of Applied Research in Memory and Cognition | Cory J Clark Thomas Costello Gregory Mitchell Philip E Tetlock | 2022 |
Co-Authors
