Ties that bias in international conflict: A spatial approach to dyadic dependence from alliance ties and inbetweenness

International Studies Quarterly

Published On 2022/3

Much of international behavior is linked spatially and temporally. Yet, analyses of interstate interactions generally either assume independence among units or resort to technical solutions to dependence that “throw away” relevant information. We detail a more informative and satisfying approach to modeling spatial dependence from extra-dyadic linkages in alliance ties and geographical proximity as specific pathways of conflict contagion. Beyond deterrence, the purpose of alliances is to draw other parties into dyadic contests, but most existing research on conflict onset generally only considers alliance ties within an individual dyad or external intervention in the same dispute. We develop new measures on third- and fourth-party alliance ties, demonstrating direct and indirect spatial effects of alliances on conflict onset. Similarly, ongoing contests can spread geographically, but dyads in some locations are …

Journal

International Studies Quarterly

Published On

2022/3

Volume

66

Issue

1

Page

sqab082

Authors

Kristian Skrede Gleditsch

Kristian Skrede Gleditsch

University of Essex

Position

Professor Department of Government & Peace Research Institute Oslo

H-Index(all)

60

H-Index(since 2020)

48

I-10 Index(all)

0

I-10 Index(since 2020)

0

Citation(all)

0

Citation(since 2020)

0

Cited By

0

Research Interests

Conflict

international relations

democratization

statistical methods

political science

University Profile Page

Erik Gartzke

Erik Gartzke

University of California, San Diego

Position

H-Index(all)

43

H-Index(since 2020)

28

I-10 Index(all)

0

I-10 Index(since 2020)

0

Citation(all)

0

Citation(since 2020)

0

Cited By

0

Research Interests

Political Science

International Relations

International Security

War and Peace Studies

Other Articles from authors

Erik Gartzke

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Kristian Skrede Gleditsch

Kristian Skrede Gleditsch

University of Essex

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Erik Gartzke

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Cyber-enabled influence operations as a ‘center of gravity’in cyberconflict: The example of Russian foreign interference in the 2016 US federal election

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Erik Gartzke

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Erik Gartzke

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Erik Gartzke

Erik Gartzke

University of California, San Diego

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Erik Gartzke

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Kristian Skrede Gleditsch

Kristian Skrede Gleditsch

University of Essex

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Kristian Skrede Gleditsch

Kristian Skrede Gleditsch

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Kristian Skrede Gleditsch

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University of Essex

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Kristian Skrede Gleditsch

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Kristian Skrede Gleditsch

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Kristian Skrede Gleditsch

Kristian Skrede Gleditsch

University of Essex

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Ronald McGauvran

Ronald McGauvran

Tennessee Tech University

International Studies Quarterly

The Effect of Terrorism on Income Inequality

Conflict research has recently found that increased inequality weakens institutional conditions, opening the door for terrorism. While this research often accounts for endogeneity, or the possibility of a reverse causal relationship, there has yet to be an empirical investigation of the impact of terrorism on income inequality. Using a sample of 139 countries between 1994 and 2018, we show that both domestic and transnational terrorism result in higher levels of income inequality. Our results are consistent for both pre- and post-tax and transfer inequality as well as multiple model specifications. Additionally, we explore multiple potential causal mechanisms that link terrorism and income inequality finding that the effect is, in part, due to terrorism’s negative effects on institutional stability, increased military expenditure, possibly to fund counterterrorism operations, and reduced foreign capital, especially for greenfield …

Brian Blankenship

Brian Blankenship

University of Miami

International Studies Quarterly

Do Threats or Shaming Increase Public Support for Policy Concessions? Alliance Coercion and Burden-Sharing in NATO

Existing literature suggests that alliance members can use their partners’ abandonment fears to obtain favorable concessions for themselves. However, evidence on the effectiveness of threats of abandonment as motivation for defense burden-sharing remains limited. This article uses a survey experiment conducted in Poland and Germany to assess how American signals of support and threats of abandonment shape public support for increasing their countries’ military spending. The findings suggest that threats of abandonment increase public support for higher defense spending, whereas approaches like “naming and shaming” under-contributing partners do not. However, assurances of protection did not decrease support for defense spending, and combining threats with assurances if anything increased those threats’ effects. Threats are thus most effective when they do not fundamentally undermine …

Fiona B. Adamson

Fiona B. Adamson

SOAS, University of London

International Studies Quarterly

The Political Geography of Globalized Civil Wars: Networked Actors and Multi-Scalar Strategies in the Kurdish Conflict Assemblage

This article introduces and lays out a conflict assemblage framework for understanding the political geography of globalized civil wars. It suggests the utility of conceptualizing Turkey’s Kurdish conflict as an assemblage in which networked actors use multi-scalar strategies as part of their overall conflict strategy. Insurgent organizations such as the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) operate at various scales beyond the national—including local, regional, transnational, and global—and in so doing utilize political opportunities and mobilize resources that are embedded in different locales. In the Kurdish case, disparate sites such as Diyarbakir, Marseille, Istanbul, London, New York, and Kobane become tied together within a single conflict assemblage that transcends geographical boundaries. An assemblage approach to violent conflict is a form of ontological theorizing that highlights this spatial and political …

Gruia Badescu

Gruia Badescu

Universität Konstanz

International Studies Quarterly

Remaking the Urban: International Actors and the Post-war Reconstruction of Cities

The postwar reconstruction of cities has become an arena of international actors who mobilize different narratives of power and reshape conflict using other means. This article highlights how international actors use urban reconfigurations as a tool for intervening in the broader postconflict reconstruction of societies. First, it shows that the postwar reconstruction of cities is not only a set of spatial and economic processes of remaking the urban environment, but also a discursive practice of highlighting hegemonies through space. The article argues that reconstruction entanglements in inter-imperial space reflect both the endurance and the emergence of hegemonies of power. Second, urban reconstruction and other spatial interventions in contested urban space often prolong the tensions originating from war. In cities where destruction was caused by a mixture of internal and external actors, and where previous …

Luis L. Schenoni

Luis L. Schenoni

Universität Konstanz

International Studies Quarterly

The Saavedra Lamas Peace: How a Norm Complex Evolved and Crystallized to Eliminate War in the Americas

After the Napoleonic Wars, interstate war regularly occurred throughout the Western Hemisphere—until it virtually disappeared in the early 1930s. Low-level militarized conflict continued, but also became less frequent, shorter, and less severe over time. Why did conflict behavior change so markedly in the Americas, but not elsewhere, and why did that change occur in the early 1930s? We argue that leaders in the Americas identified two interrelated problems that frequently threatened or caused interstate war. In response, they developed a unique, regional, norm-complex solution that bundled together two primary norms (territorial integrity and non-intervention) and one corollary norm (arbitration). This norm complex emerged via Latin American entrepreneurship shortly after independence, cascaded with Pan-Americanism, and finished crystallizing with the Saavedra Lamas Treaty in the early 1930s. We first explain generally how, why, and when norm complexes develop, augmenting the classic norm-cycle framework with a punctuated-equilibrium model and adding a crystallization period to it. We then investigate the evolution, behavioral effects, and constraints of the Latin American norm complex mentioned above—via historical narratives, quantitative analysis, and within-case qualitative counterfactuals. Interstate war disappeared from the Americas when the norm-complex gained widespread acceptance and received significant codification (i.e., crystallized).