Local deprivation predicts right-wing hate crime in England

PLoS one

Published On 2023/9/6

We argue that community deprivation can increase the risk of right-wing radicalization and violent attacks and that measures of local deprivation can help improve forecasting local hate crime rates. A large body of research stresses how experiences of deprivation can erode the perceived legitimacy of political leaders and institutions, increase alienation, and encourage right-wing radicalization and hate crime. Existing analyses have found limited support for a close relationship between deprivation and radicalization among individuals. We provide an alternative approach using highly disaggregated data for England and show that information on local deprivation can improve predictions of the location of right-wing hate crime attacks. Beyond the ability to predict where right-wing hate crime is likely, our results suggest that efforts to decrease deprivation can have important consequences for political violence, and that targeting structural facilitators to prevent far-right violence ex ante can be an alternative or complement to ex post measures.

Journal

PLoS one

Published On

2023/9/6

Volume

18

Issue

9

Page

e0289423

Authors

Kristian Skrede Gleditsch

Kristian Skrede Gleditsch

University of Essex

Position

Professor Department of Government & Peace Research Institute Oslo

H-Index(all)

60

H-Index(since 2020)

48

I-10 Index(all)

0

I-10 Index(since 2020)

0

Citation(all)

0

Citation(since 2020)

0

Cited By

0

Research Interests

Conflict

international relations

democratization

statistical methods

political science

University Profile Page

Margherita Belgioioso

Margherita Belgioioso

University of Kent

Position

H-Index(all)

6

H-Index(since 2020)

6

I-10 Index(all)

0

I-10 Index(since 2020)

0

Citation(all)

0

Citation(since 2020)

0

Cited By

0

Research Interests

Conflict

Political violence

Nonviolent civil resistance

University Profile Page

Christoph Dworschak

Christoph Dworschak

University of Essex

Position

University of the German Federal Armed Forces Munich

H-Index(all)

4

H-Index(since 2020)

4

I-10 Index(all)

0

I-10 Index(since 2020)

0

Citation(all)

0

Citation(since 2020)

0

Cited By

0

Research Interests

mobilization and repression

peacekeeping

civil-military relations

conflict prediction

causal inference

University Profile Page

Other Articles from authors

Kristian Skrede Gleditsch

Kristian Skrede Gleditsch

University of Essex

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Christoph Dworschak

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Mass Reproducibility and Replicability: A New Hope

Reproducibility and replication efforts contribute in essential ways to the production of scientific knowledge by testing accumulated evidence. 1 Reproductions and replications assess which findings are robust, promoting self-correcting science and affecting policy-making (Vazire (2017)). Importantly, reproductions and replications emphasize that evidence is cumulative and should be assessed holistically. Active research fields appear when previous research fails to be replicated or reproduced. Yet, reproducible and replicable research increases the confidence in scientific communities confidence and our investments and innovations relying on that knowledge. Replications and reproductions in research are also foundational to teaching, ensuring that the knowledge being passed on is accurate and reliable and providing practical experiences for students. For all these reasons, reproductions and replications are …

Christoph Dworschak

Christoph Dworschak

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Christoph Dworschak

Christoph Dworschak

University of Essex

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Civil resistance in the streetlight: replicating and assessing evidence on nonviolent effectiveness

Does civil resistance work? Research emphasizes the effectiveness of nonviolent resistance over violent resistance in achieving campaign goals, with the seminal study Why Civil Resistance Works (WCRW) by Chenoweth and Stephan being the main point of reference to date. I revisit this pivotal finding in three steps. First, I reproduce WCRW’s results on nonviolent effectiveness. Second, I discuss how cases may have been overlooked due to a streetlight effect. Third, I quantify the results’ sensitivity using simulations. I find that WCRW’s main findings on nonviolent effectiveness are highly sensitive to variable selection, under-coverage bias, bootstrapping, and omitted variable bias. As a routine reference in scholarship and the public discourse, assessing the robustness of WCRW’s findings is relevant to practitioners and researchers.

Kristian Skrede Gleditsch

Kristian Skrede Gleditsch

University of Essex

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Kristian Skrede Gleditsch

Kristian Skrede Gleditsch

University of Essex

Journal of Peace Research

Going, going, gone? Varieties of dissent and leader exit

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Christoph Dworschak

Christoph Dworschak

University of Essex

Replication of The Morning After: Report from the Nottingham Replication Games

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Kristian Skrede Gleditsch

Kristian Skrede Gleditsch

University of Essex

International Studies Review

Challenges to Scholarship and Policy During Crises

The COVID-19 pandemic has had a dramatic influence on mortality and public health and generated much speculation on potential impacts on international politics. Fast-moving crises such as the COVID pandemic and 2008 financial crises entail many challenges for scholarship; events evolve rapidly, our prior knowledge base is limited, it is unclear whether existing theories or analogies apply, and new research findings emerge quickly but also erratically. Researchers face demands to engage with policy and general audiences when normal standards of scholarship may be difficult to apply. Crises can also have a dramatic impact on how we conduct research and interact with other scholars. The forum introduction outlines how crises pose challenges for scholarship and policy and the value of approaching crises such as COVID-19 in comparative perspective. Milner highlights the important differences …

Kristian Skrede Gleditsch

Kristian Skrede Gleditsch

University of Essex

Peace Economics, Peace Science and Public Policy

This Research has Important Policy Implications…

The COVID 19 pandemic has generated much interest in the relationship between research and policy. It has drawn new attention to the limitations of a linear model, where policy is based on first observing prior scientific research and then designed in response to this. Conflict researchers often motivate the importance of their work by claiming that their “research has important policy implications”, but the proposals offered are often at best incomplete. I identify a number of common limitations in claims about policy implications, including a lack of discussion of objectives and priorities, stating objectives themselves as if they were policies, claims about targeting factors without discussing the effectiveness of possible interventions, and a failure to consider uncertainty and potential tensions with other objectives or unintended effects. Research can potentially inform policy discussions and improve decisions, but the …

Kristian Skrede Gleditsch

Kristian Skrede Gleditsch

University of Essex

Political Research Quarterly

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Kristian Skrede Gleditsch

Kristian Skrede Gleditsch

University of Essex

Political Geography

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Margherita Belgioioso

Margherita Belgioioso

University of Kent

Rebel Financing and Terrorism in Civil Wars

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Christoph Dworschak

Christoph Dworschak

University of Essex

Journal of Peace Research

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Posttreatment variables are covariates that are preceded by the main explanatory variable. Their inclusion in a statistical model does not ‘control’ for their influence on the relationship of interest, and it does not substitute for a mediation analysis. Likewise, a coefficient estimate of an appropriate ‘control variable’ cannot be interpreted as a causal effect estimate. While these facts are well-established in various fields across the social sciences, their recognition in the field of peace and conflict studies is more limited. Originally collected data on recent publications from leading peace and conflict journals reveal that a large majority of evaluated articles condition on posttreatment variables, demonstrating how a review of these fallacies can help to substantially improve future research on peace and conflict. Drawing on a broad set of literature and using graphical approaches, I offer an intuitive explanation of the logic of …

Kristian Skrede Gleditsch

Kristian Skrede Gleditsch

University of Essex

International Studies Quarterly

One without the other? Prediction and policy in international studies

Like many others, I have spent much time since March 2020 reviewing and reflecting on research on COVID-19 and the policy responses to the pandemic. This has in turn inspired me to reflect on research and policy in my own field. The crisis over Russian demands on Ukraine in early 2022 and the subsequent Russian invasion of Ukraine is at the time ofCentre for Advanced Studies, Norwegian Academy of Science and Letters in Oslo, on May 11–12. I would like to dedicate this article to my late supervisor, close collaborator, and personal friend Michael D. Ward. We had many useful discussions on forecasting, and his work on conflict prediction has had a major influence on the field. I hope he would have enjoyed this presidential address.

Kristian Skrede Gleditsch

Kristian Skrede Gleditsch

University of Essex

International Studies Quarterly

Ties that bias in international conflict: A spatial approach to dyadic dependence from alliance ties and inbetweenness

Much of international behavior is linked spatially and temporally. Yet, analyses of interstate interactions generally either assume independence among units or resort to technical solutions to dependence that “throw away” relevant information. We detail a more informative and satisfying approach to modeling spatial dependence from extra-dyadic linkages in alliance ties and geographical proximity as specific pathways of conflict contagion. Beyond deterrence, the purpose of alliances is to draw other parties into dyadic contests, but most existing research on conflict onset generally only considers alliance ties within an individual dyad or external intervention in the same dispute. We develop new measures on third- and fourth-party alliance ties, demonstrating direct and indirect spatial effects of alliances on conflict onset. Similarly, ongoing contests can spread geographically, but dyads in some locations are …

Kristian Skrede Gleditsch

Kristian Skrede Gleditsch

University of Essex

The Journal of Development Studies

Can education reduce violent crime? Evidence from Mexico before and after the drug war onset

Existing theories relate higher education to lower crime rates, yet we have limited evidence on the crime-reducing effect of education in developing countries. We contribute to this literature by examining the effect of education on homicide in Mexico, where homicide rates decreased by nearly 55 percent from 1992 to 2007, before the surge of drug-related violence. We argue that a large amount of this reduction followed a compulsory schooling law at the secondary level in 1993, when the government undertook key education reforms to promote development and economic integration. We employ different empirical strategies that combine regression analysis, placebo tests, and an instrumental variable approach, and find that attendance in secondary and tertiary schools has a negative effect on homicide rates before the onset of the Drug War, although the evidence for secondary enrolment is more robust. This effect …

Kristian Skrede Gleditsch

Kristian Skrede Gleditsch

University of Essex

Journal of Conflict Resolution

Mapping the International

This article introduces CShapes 2.0, a GIS dataset that maps the borders of states and dependent territories from 1886 through 2019. Our dataset builds on the previous CShapes dataset and improves it in two ways. First, it extends temporal coverage from 1946 back to the year 1886, which followed the Berlin Conference on the partition of Africa. Second, the new dataset is no longer limited to independent states, but also maps the borders of colonies and other dependencies, thereby providing near complete global coverage of political units throughout recent history. This article explains the coding procedure, provides a preview of the dataset and presents three illustrative applications.

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James R Priest MD

James R Priest MD

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Inga Tiemann

Rheinische Friedrich-Wilhelms-Universität Bonn

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Plos one

Factors associated with hepatitis A susceptibility among men who have sex with men using HIV pre-exposure prophylaxis in Northeastern Brazil: A cross-sectional study

Hepatitis A virus (HAV) infection has disproportionately affected more men who have sex with men (MSM), occurring in outbreaks, despite being vaccine-preventable. We determined the prevalence and factors associated with HAV susceptibility among cisgender MSM on HIV pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) in Northeastern Brazil. From September 30, 2021 to June 19, 2023, 282 cisgender MSM receiving HIV PrEP were enrolled into this cross-sectional study. Sociodemographic and clinical information were collected. Blood samples were collected for screening of sexually transmitted infections (STIs) and serum samples were tested for IgM and total anti-HAV antibodies. Non-reactive results for total anti-HAV antibodies were found in 106 of 282 (37.6%) participants. Factors associated with HAV susceptibility included age <30 years (prevalence ratio [PR]: 2.02; 95% confidence interval [95% CI]: 1.61–2.53), having health insurance (PR: 1.39; 95% CI: 1.19–1.64), sex only with cisgender men (PR: 1.52; 95% CI: 1.23–1.89), non-steady partner (PR: 1.20; 95% CI: 1.01–1.43) and no lifetime history of STIs (PR: 1.25; 95% CI: 1.03–1.53). Identifying clinical correlates of HAV susceptibility in key populations is a fundamental step towards development of public policy focused on prevention, especially following the recent hepatitis A outbreak in Brazil.

Karl Bates

Karl Bates

University of Liverpool

Plos one

Regional variation of the cortical and trabecular bone material properties in the rabbit skull

The material properties of some bones are known to vary with anatomical location, orientation and position within the bone (e.g., cortical and trabecular bone). Details of the heterogeneity and anisotropy of bone is an important consideration for biomechanical studies that apply techniques such as finite element analysis, as the outcomes will be influenced by the choice of material properties used. Datasets detailing the regional variation of material properties in the bones of the skull are sparse, leaving many finite element analyses of skulls no choice but to employ homogeneous, isotropic material properties, often using data from a different species to the one under investigation. Due to the growing significance of investigating the cranial biomechanics of the rabbit in basic science and clinical research, this study used nanoindentation to measure the elastic modulus of cortical and trabecular bone throughout the skull. The elastic moduli of cortical bone measured in the mediolateral and ventrodorsal direction were found to decrease posteriorly through the skull, while it was evenly distributed when measured in the anteroposterior direction. Furthermore, statistical tests showed that the variation of elastic moduli between separate regions (anterior, middle and posterior) of the skull were significantly different in cortical bone, but was not in trabecular bone. Elastic moduli measured in different orthotropic planes were also significantly different, with the moduli measured in the mediolateral direction consistently lower than that measured in either the anteroposterior or ventrodorsal direction. These findings demonstrate the significance of regional and …

Julia Mueller

Julia Mueller

University of Cambridge

Plos one

The relationship of within-individual and between-individual variation in mental health with bodyweight: An exploratory longitudinal study

Background Poor mental health is associated with obesity, but existing studies are either cross-sectional or have long time periods between measurements of mental health and weight. It is, therefore, unclear how small fluctuations in mental wellbeing within individuals predict bodyweight over short time periods, e.g. within the next month. Studying this could identify modifiable determinants of weight changes and highlight opportunities for early intervention. Methods 2,133 UK adults from a population-based cohort completed monthly mental health and weight measurements using a mobile app over a period of 6–9 months. We used random intercept regression models to examine longitudinal associations of depressive symptoms, anxiety symptoms and stress with subsequent weight. In sub-group analyses, we included interaction terms of mental health variables with baseline characteristics. Mental health variables were split into “between-individual” measurements (= the participant’s median score across all timepoints) and “within-individual” measurements (at each timepoint, the difference between the participant’s current score and their median). Results Within-individual variation in depressive symptoms predicted subsequent weight (0.045kg per unit of depressive symptom severity, 95% CI 0.021–0.069). We found evidence of a moderation effect of baseline BMI on the association between within-individual fluctuation in depressive symptoms and subsequent weight: The association was only apparent in those with overweight/obesity, and it was stronger in those with obesity than those with overweight (BMI<25kg/m2: 0.011kg per unit of …

Darcy Bradley

Darcy Bradley

University of California, Santa Barbara

Plos one

Could fish aggregation at ocean aquaculture augment wild populations and local fisheries?

The global population consumes more seafood from aquaculture today than from capture fisheries and although the aquaculture industry continues to grow, both seafood sectors will continue to be important to the global food supply into the future. As farming continues to expand into ocean systems, understanding how wild populations and fisheries will interact with farms will be increasingly important to informing sustainable ocean planning and management. Using a spatially explicit population and fishing model we simulate several impacts from ocean aquaculture (i.e., aggregation, protection from fishing, and impacts on fitness) to evaluate the mechanisms underlying interactions between aquaculture, wild populations and fisheries. We find that aggregation of species to farms can increase the benefits of protection from fishing that a farm provides and can have greater impacts on more mobile species. Splitting total farm area into smaller farms can benefit fishery catches, whereas larger farms can provide greater ecological benefits through conservation of wild populations. Our results provide clear lessons on how to design and co-manage expanding ocean aquaculture along with wild capture ecosystem management to benefit fisheries or conservation objectives.

Kyu-Min Lee

Kyu-Min Lee

KAIST

Plos one

The potential for cascading failures in the international trade network

In our study, we introduce indicators that quantify the influence of each country in complex trade scenarios involving the exchange of raw materials, intermediate goods, and final products across multiple countries. We systematically employ an agent-based model to simulate the propagation of failures from one node to the entire network. This approach allows for the assessment of the impact of each country and the identification of patterns of interaction in the multi-step trade network. Unlike conventional analyses of trade networks, which depict straightforward single-step import/export transactions, our approach captures the intricate realities of processes like raw material procurement, production, and sales in numerous countries from a macroscopic perspective. The findings of our analysis of trade data spanning from 1990 to 2022 reveal several key insights. Firstly, sensitivity to changes in trade volume leading to global failures within interconnected networks has intensified over time. The potential of failure propagation across countries has increased over time, as has the interconnectedness of countries in the global trade landscape. Secondly, despite the increased sensitivity to changes in global trade volume, many countries have become less vulnerable to the influence of others within their multi-step trade networks. This trend aligns with deglobalization, which is evidenced by events such as Brexit and the surge in protectionist measures; these changes indicate a shift in the balance of influence within global trade networks. Thirdly, the results of our analysis of the relationship between load changes and global failures from a regional …

MARIO L. R. MONTEIRO

MARIO L. R. MONTEIRO

Universidade de São Paulo

Plos one

Discrimination ability of central visual field testing using stimulus size I, II, and III and relationship between VF findings and macular ganglion cell thickness in chiasmal …

Purpose To compare the relationship between macular ganglion cell layer (mGCL) thickness and 10–2 visual field (VF) sensitivity using different stimulus sizes in patients with temporal hemianopia from chiasmal compression. Methods A cross-sectional study was conducted involving 30 eyes from 25 patients with temporal VF loss on 24–2 SITA standard automated perimetry due to previous chiasmal compression and 30 healthy eyes (23 controls). Optical coherence tomography (OCT) of the macular area and 10–2 VF testing using Goldmann stimulus size I (GI), II (GII), and III (GIII) were performed in the Octopus 900 perimeter. For the sake of analysis, mGCL thickness and VF data were segregated into four quadrants (two temporal and two nasal) and two halves (temporal and nasal) centered on the fovea, in order to evaluate separately both the severely affected nasal hemi-retina corresponding to the temporal VF sectors and the subclinically affected temporal hemi-retina corresponding to the nasal VF sectors. Data from patients and controls were compared using generalized estimated equations. The discrimination ability of GI, GII, and GIII was evaluated, as was the correlation between mGCL and 10–2 VF sensitivity using GI, GII, and GIII. Results All mGCL parameters in the nasal and temporal halves of the retina were significantly reduced in patients compared to controls. 10–2 VF test sensitivity using GI, GII, and GIII was significantly lower in patients than in controls (p≤0.008) for all parameters, except the three nasal divisions when using GI (p = 0.41, 0.07 and 0.18) Significant correlations were found between temporal VF sectors (all …

MARIO L. R. MONTEIRO

MARIO L. R. MONTEIRO

Universidade de São Paulo

Plos one

Effects of aflibercept and bevacizumab on cell viability, cell metabolism and inflammation in hypoxic human Müller cells

Anti-VEGF (vascular endothelial growth factor) drugs such as aflibercept (AFL) and bevacizumab (BVZ) inhibit pathological neo-angiogenesis and vascular permeability in retinal vascular diseases. As cytokines and growth factors are produced by Müller glial cells under stressful and pathological conditions, we evaluated the in vitro effect of AFL (Eylea®, 0.5 mg/mL) and BVZ (Avastin®, 0.5 mg/mL) on cell viability/metabolism, and cytokine/growth factor production by Müller cells (MIO-M1) under cobalt chloride (CoCl2)-induced hypoxia after 24h, 48h and 72h. Cell viability/metabolism were analyzed by Trypan Blue and MTT assays and cytokine/growth factors in supernatants by Luminex xMAP-based multiplex bead-based immunoassay. Cell viability increased with AFL at 48h and 72h and decreased with BVZ or hypoxia at 24h. BVZ-treated cells showed lower cell viability than AFL at all exposure times. Cell metabolism increased with AFL but decreased with BVZ (72h) and hypoxia (48h and72h). As expected, AFL and BVZ decreased VEGF levels. AFL increased PDGF-BB, IL-6 and TNF-α (24h) and BVZ increased PDGF-BB (72h). Hypoxia reduced IL-1β, -6, -8, TNF-α and PDGF-BB at 24h, and its suppressive effect was more prominent than AFL (EGF, PDGF-BB, IL-1β, IL-6, IL-8, and TNF-α) and BVZ (PDGF-BB and IL-6) effects. Hypoxia increased bFGF levels at 48h and 72h, even when combined with anti-VEGFs. However, the stimulatory effect of BVZ predominated over hypoxia for IL-8 and TNF-α (24h), as well as for IL-1β (72h). Thus, AFL and BVZ exhibit distinct exposure times effects on MIO-M1 cells viability, metabolism, and cytokines …

Olga Yakusheva

Olga Yakusheva

University of Michigan

Plos one

Patterns of interactions among ICU interprofessional teams: A prospective patient-shift-level survey approach

Background The Awakening, Breathing Coordination, Delirium monitoring and Early mobility bundle (ABCDE) is associated with lower mortality for intensive care unit (ICU) patients. However, efforts to improve ABCDE are variably successful, possibly due to lack of clarity about who are the team members interacting when caring for each patient, each shift. Lack of patient shift-level information regarding who is interacting with whom limits the ability to tailor interventions to the specific ICU team to improve ABCDE. Objective Determine the number and types of individuals (i.e., clinicians and family members) interacting in the care of mechanically ventilated (MV) patients, as reported by the patients’ assigned physician, nurse, and respiratory therapist (RT) each shift, using a network science lens. Methods We conducted a prospective, patient-shift-level survey in 2 medical ICUs. For each patient, we surveyed the assigned physician, nurse, and RT each day and night shift about who they interacted with when providing ABCDE for each patient-shift. We determined the number and types of interactions, reported by physicians, nurses, and RTs and day versus night shift. Results From 1558 surveys from 404 clinicians who cared for 169 patients over 166 shifts (65% response rate), clinicians reported interacting with 2.6 individuals each shift (physicians: 2.65, nurses: 3.33, RTs: 1.86); this was fewer on night shift compared to day shift (1.99 versus 3.02). Most frequent interactions were with the bedside nurse, attending, resident, intern, and RT; family member interactions were reported in less than 1 in 5 surveys (12.2% of physician surveys, 19.7% of …

BERNA UZUN

BERNA UZUN

Yakin Dogu Üniversitesi

Plos one

Quantifying holistic capacity response and healthcare resilience in tackling COVID-19: Assessment of country capacity by MCDM

The resilience of a country during the COVID-19 pandemic was determined based in whether it was holistically prepared and responsive. This resilience can only be identified through systematic data collection and analysis. Historical evidence-based response indicators have been proven to mitigate pandemics like COVID-19. However, most databases are outdated, requiring updating, derivation, and explicit interpretation to gain insight into the impact of COVID-19. Outdated databases do not show a country’s true preparedness and response capacity, therefore, it undermines pandemic threat. This study uses up-to-date evidence-based pandemic indictors to run a cross-country comparative analysis of COVID-19 preparedness, response capacity, and healthcare resilience. PROMETHEE—a multicriteria decision making (MCDM) technique—is used to quantify the strengths (positive) and weaknesses (negative) of each country’s COVID-19 responses, with full ranking (net) from best to least responsive. From 22 countries, South Korea obtained the highest net outranking value of 0.1945, indicating that it was the most resilient, while Mexico had the lowest (-0.1428). Although countries were underprepared, there was a robust response to the pandemic, especially in developing countries. This study demonstrates the performance and response capacity of 22 key countries to resist COVID-19, from which other countries can compare their statutory capacity ranking in order to learn/adopt the evidence-based responses of better performing countries to improve their resilience.